Many brands write off the final weekend before Christmas as a minor blip, a small bump from procrastinators buying gift cards, stocking stuffers, or crossing their fingers on shipping cutoffs. That view is so 2019….
This year, the last weekend before Christmas will be stronger than any other year not only because of shifting consumer behavior around BOPIS, but the same day delivery capabilities of Amazon, Walmart, Instacart, Doordash, and more make it easier truly be last minute.
This has been coming for years. Amazon has trained its shoppers to ‘trust Prime’ and get it within 2 days. The last day for free Prime shipping has historically been one of Amazon’s largest shipping days, easily beating normal holiday shopping days. This year Amazon passed UPS to be the 2nd largest parcel delivery to US homes (behind USPS)
Amazon may have created the trend, but Walmart has cemented shorter online times for consumers. Walmart has quickly turned its store base into a delivery and pickup engine. Not a fan of BOPIS? They now offer local same day delivery to 95% of the US population.
Add in the Instacart/Doordash/Uber expansion beyond food you’ve got a huge % of the population that can get product in hours, not days. i
The shoppers are out there, so brands just need to shift and focus their spending and messaging. Here’s some tips that can be applied across three core channels
Amazon:
- Channel Shift: Key for every brand Is knowing how your product is sold. FBM (fulfilled by Merchant) items will not arrive by Christmas and should be paused (or dramatically reduced.
- Campaign Shift: Focus on product search and specific products and messages. Higher funnel campaigns won’t perform well now; buyers are hunting so shift to make sure you’re showing up.
- Daily Spend – Follow the Amazon buyer and ramp spend mid-day throughout the weekend. Pump the breaks after 3PM EST Monday (approximate cutoff for most items)
- Watch Daily Sales and real time sales like a hawk – Amazon still controls the messaging on when items arrive, plus they’re driving overall demand to the site. If they shift strategies, you’ll want to adjust
- Execute your turndown plan: Every brand should have a turndown plan to reduce wasted spend. Search and click volume will remain high even on the 23rd, but Amazon won’t be able to deliver most. Avoid the waste and reset until after Christmas.
Walmart:
- Channel Shift: If you’re not an instore Walmart item, your holiday peak has likely passed. Walmart WFS and 1P shipments are still strong but Walmart has something Amazon doesn’t – instore visitor and a huge BOPIS base.
- Campaign Shift: Same as Amazon. Focus on product search and specific products and messages. Higher funnel campaigns won’t perform well now; buyers are hunting so shift to make sure you’re showing up.
- Daily Spend: Foot traffic and pickup will be very strong through the 23rd so make sure you’ve got budget to support that level. Pump the breaks Tuesday afternoon.
- Use Paid Performance as Metric for volume: Walmart’s real time reporting is lacking so you’ll need to use your ad activity as a benchmark for the trend. Not ideal but it’s the best option you’ll likely have.
- Execute your turndown plan: Just a bit later than Walmart.
The “Insta-Door-Ubers”:
- Product Shift: If you advertise on one or more of these platforms, take advantage of their surge and focus on your top dollar and volume items. Most brands typically support everything in a store. Not this weekend. Just pick the core items you want to move.
- Campaign Shift: Same as Amazon and Walmart. Focus on product search and specific products and messages.
- Daily Spend: These buyers aren’t going to the store, so peak will be a little tough to nail down. Plan for a peak Monday then weaker Tuesday.
- Use Platform Metrics: There’s always a delay but use last click attribution to get a good sense of your performance
- Less dramatic turndown plan: There will be volume on the 24th through the 26th but limited delivery capacity. Be prepared to re-ramp on the 26th
Final thought
This weekend is no longer a slow fade—it’s a compressed peak driven by:
- Trust in fast delivery
- Pickup removing shipping anxiety
- Same-day platforms redefining “online”
Brands that signal confidence and speed will outperform those still acting as the holidays are already over.
Swell’s clients already have these plans in place. Learn more about how we can help your brand win the store and digital commerce race in 2026.